The Liberal leadership race begins
On Monday January 6, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he would be resigning as Prime Minister and stepping down as Liberal leader in the coming months. Trudeau made the announcement outside Rideau Cottage, his official residence in Ottawa.
The Prime Minister began his departure announcement with gratitude: “Every morning, I’ve woken up as prime minister, I’ve been inspired by the resilience, the generosity and the determination of Canadians. It is the driving force of every single day I have the privilege of serving in this office.”
Trudeau then made reference to pressures from within the Liberal Party of Canada as influencing his decision to step down: “This country deserves a real choice in the next election, and it has become clear to me that if I’m having to fight internal battles, I cannot be the best option in that election.” Pressure from inside the Liberal Party for Trudeau to step down had been intensifying since December 2024, when Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned.
Trudeau clarified he would only officially step down once the Liberal Party selects a new leader through a nationwide vote: “I intend to resign as party leader, as prime minister, after the party selects its next leader through a robust, nationwide, competitive process. Last night, I asked the president of the Liberal Party to begin that process.”
In the same announcement, Trudeau declared he would be proroguing the House of Commons until March 24, 2025. Prorogation is a prerogative act of the Crown, taken on the advice of the Prime Minister. Proroguing Parliament ends the current parliamentary session and functions as a suspension that stops all proceedings without dissolving Parliament. The decision to prorogue the House of Commons is likely a measure to prevent a vote of no confidence, triggering a general election, before the Liberals select a new leader.
The Liberals have scheduled an election for their new leader to be held on March 9. Typically, the process for Canadian federal parties to select new leaders takes four to five months. The Liberal party will be accelerating this process to under two months.
The rules outlining the voter eligibility for the upcoming Liberal leadership race have been published. To vote, a person must be a Registered Liberal, pay any required fees, and be a Canadian citizen, permanent residence, or person with status under the Indian Act. Those not yet registered with the Liberal Party who wish to participate in the leadership vote must complete registration by 5pm EST on January 27, 2025.
Some prominent names currently expected to run for Liberal leadership include: Former Governor of the Bank of Canada Mark Carney, Former Deputy PM Chrystia Freeland, Liberal House leader Karina Gould, MP Jaime Battiste, MP Chandra Arya, and businessman and former Liberal MP Frank Baylis.
Party members had until January 23, 2025 to enter the leadership race. Candidates for Liberal leadership will be required to pay a $350,000 entrance fee. The new entrance fee is over four times the previous leadership race entrance fee, which was only $75,000. Some interested candidates such as Jaime Battiste, a Mi’kmaw member of Parliament from Nova Scotia, have expressed uncertainty in their ability to raise the required entry fee in time.
The next general election must be held on or before October 20, but this timeline could be accelerated if a majority of the House of Commons votes no-confidence. The Conservative Party of Canada has been attempting to bring a no-confidence vote for months. So far, the Liberal and the New Democratic Party have combined their votes to prevent a no-confidence vote from succeeding. However, after Trudeau’s resignation, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said he would vote to bring down the Liberal Party in the next no-confidence vote.
Currently, national polls indicate the Conservatives hold a 23 point lead over the Liberals and are on track for a landslide majority win. If an election were held today, CBC News Poll Tracker predicts there is a 99% chance of the Conservatives winning a majority government, 1% chance of the Conservatives winning a minority government, and less than 1% chance of either the Liberals or NDP winning minority governments. These polls overwhelmingly suggest Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre will be Canada’s next Prime Minister.
It is most likely in 2025 that Canadians will see three different prime ministers: Trudeau, the next Liberal leader elected, and Poilievre. The proroguing of Parliament and rapid turnover of prime ministers in 2025 raise concerns about the ability of the Federal Government to handle imminent challenges including American President Donald Trump’s threats of imposing 25% blanket tariffs on Canada.
In response to the news of Trudeau stepping down, Poilievre responded by posting a video detailing a laundry list of complaints about the current Prime Minister and a call for Canadians to hold the Liberal Party as a whole responsible for Trudeau’s decisions over the years.
Assuming Trudeau officially steps down on March 24, he will be stepping down as Canada’s 7th longest serving Prime Minister, behind previous prime minister Conservative leader Stephen Harper and ahead of former Conservative leader Brian Mulroney. Justin Trudeau’s resignation speech can be read in full online here: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/prime-minister-trudeau-resignation-speech-in-full-1.7423937
After months of mounting internal pressure from the Liberal Party, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his plan to resign as prime minister, begin the new Liberal leadership race, and prorogue the House of Commons until March 24.